Forecast, launched today, covers 2011-16. Here are some key points from the forecasts. More details.
- 2016 annual global mobile data traffic = 130 Exabytes 18x from 2011-2016- this is higher than last year’s forecast
- 2011 actual growth was 133% (i.e. 2.3x)
- 2016 is a particularly large step from 6.9 to 10.8 exabytes: growth step is 3x today’s total
- 78% CAGR 2011-16
- W. Europe: 22.6% of the total in 2016
- 11% was offloaded in 2011, expect to grow to 22% by 2016: reflects service provider investment in encouraging this
- .5% of mobile users consumed over 1GB /month in 2011.
- Top 1% of users consumed 52% in month 1, 24% in month 11. Generally growth spreading towards the mainstream.
- 2016: 1.4 mobile connections per capita. 10bn mobile connections in total from 7.3bn people.
- Laptops dominate today, smartphones lead by 2016.
- Tablets drive 10% of traffic by 2016. 2016 tablet data will be 2x total 2011 traffic
- Smartphone growth from 150MB/month to 2576 MB/month 2011-16
- M2M growth from 23PB /month to 508PB/month in same period: 86%CAGR (but signalling load disproportionately important for these devices)
- Video to exceed 70% of traffic by 2016
- Cloud traffic on mobile will grow from 45% to 71% of the total. Note cloud traffic means that data may be multiply downloaded ( e.g. streaming content rather than side loading).
- Network speeds to increase 9x. 53% CAGR for W Europe: 667 to 5549 mean kbps /user
- 4G traffic will be 36% in 2016, but from only 8% of devices
- In 2011 4G connections were 2.4 GB/month, 28x that of a 3G connection.
